Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 135.239544 161.515253 193.409144 235.583469 290.827985 3.621093e+02 4.634032e+02
2025-03-23 109.383415 142.321219 187.379939 255.829614 361.653603 5.276149e+02 8.278165e+02
2025-03-30 90.510129 124.460131 174.737730 258.920445 406.255296 6.768989e+02 1.285339e+03
2025-04-06 79.450741 114.148935 168.941665 268.533954 463.155032 8.787234e+02 2.053375e+03
2025-04-13 69.057905 102.387183 157.540233 264.186312 491.487953 1.041966e+03 2.964562e+03
2025-04-20 65.063624 99.906883 160.701031 287.055378 586.367990 1.439799e+03 5.495561e+03
2025-04-27 61.239118 96.905175 162.072160 306.592234 684.669516 1.955888e+03 1.062066e+04
2025-05-04 57.474422 93.312767 161.459585 321.563897 780.810380 2.600654e+03 2.161619e+04
2025-05-11 53.722548 89.128711 158.782660 330.887657 867.599364 3.363615e+03 4.677321e+04
2025-05-18 49.952272 84.359778 153.986389 333.531559 936.036593 4.192116e+03 1.078213e+05
2025-05-25 46.081156 78.896382 146.773813 327.823435 972.752870 4.941926e+03 2.541483e+05
2025-06-01 42.410513 73.409121 138.666660 317.574940 987.351036 5.607660e+03 6.487265e+05
2025-06-08 38.841662 67.899357 130.057599 304.832503 990.434115 6.283971e+03 2.273758e+06
2025-06-15 38.205580 68.321431 135.177537 334.734081 1212.376270 1.037081e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 36.196410 65.618905 132.424292 339.364536 1319.356739 1.403522e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 34.826990 64.124295 132.384949 353.182025 1496.587292 2.139121e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 32.693377 60.730414 127.028624 346.947707 1548.631435 2.696646e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 32.342430 61.255331 131.899242 379.911615 1916.691766 5.715612e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 31.748191 61.154255 135.102140 408.334009 2316.365488 1.320288e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 30.926937 60.430800 136.473213 430.272907 2719.785853 3.381797e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 29.898503 59.106381 135.922667 444.003222 3086.441283 9.746228e+05 NaN
2025-08-10 28.676610 57.196746 133.375480 447.905988 3362.958819 3.101478e+06 NaN
2025-08-17 27.240443 54.639556 128.550520 439.485140 3472.970766 8.868259e+06 NaN